Slab prices rose on the European market, taking into account CBAM costs
Regional slab markets saw mixed trends last month. Prices rose by $25 per ton in Brazil, while falling in the Black Sea market. The divergence in dynamics is explained by the introduction of the CBAM mechanism: Brazil gained significant competitive advantages in the European market due to low carbon costs.
The most significant increase in prices last month occurred in the Brazilian market. According to SteelOrbis, the reference export price of Brazilian slab rose by $25 in February to $540/ton (FOB), which is an 8-month local maximum.
However, this trend was accompanied by a decline in production and export figures at the beginning of the year. According to the Brazilian Steelmakers Association (IAB), local mills reduced their production of semi-finished products in January by 37% compared to December, to 619,000 tons, of which 541,000 tons were slabs. Slab exports from Brazil in January amounted to 784,000 tons (FOB), which is 18% less than in December.
However, Brazilian steel is still subject to tariffs of up to 50% under Section 232, which negates the effect of the new global rate of 15%. This is particularly significant given that the US remains the largest export destination for Brazilian slabs: in 2025, shipments amounted to 4.8 million tonnes.
The introduction of CBAM has also affected the slab market. According to Kallanish, clarity regarding emissions and the impact of CBAM remains a key factor influencing purchasing decisions. Therefore, the EU has stepped up its purchases of slabs in Brazil, where CBAM costs are less than €30/t.
Despite all attempts to restrict imports of Russian slabs to the EU market, their share there exceeds 50%. According to Eurostat, slab imports into the EU in 2025 grew by 30% y/y to 6.5 million tonnes. Of these, Russia supplied 3.7 million tonnes (+18% y/y), although its market share fell to 58% from 63% in 2024. The largest importers of slab were Belgium (1.3 million tons), Italy (837,000 tons), and the Czech Republic (826,000 tons).
Under the EU’s 12th package of sanctions against Russia, EU importers are allowed to import 3 million tons of slabs from Russia per year until October 2026. According to Kallanish, the remaining quota as of February 12 was 1.36 million tons. This means that about 65% of the quota has already been used.
Average FOB Black Sea prices fell to $443/t last month, compared to $445/t at the end of January. The high ruble exchange rate makes deliveries unprofitable, while weak demand for rolled metal in Turkey limits the scope for price increases.
In January, domestic slab production in the country grew by 8.1% y/y – to 1.3 million tonnes. In 2025, slab production in the country fell by 1.2% y/y – to 13.9 million tonnes.
Price dynamics varied in other regional markets. Average slab prices in Japan stabilized at $465/t in February.
According to tender data, slab prices on the Iranian market are $423-427/t (FOB terms). According to the Iranian Steel Producers Association (ISPA), in the first 10 months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21 – January 20, 2026), slab production increased by 4.7% to 10.6 million tons, and exports increased by 34.6% – to 1.8 million tons. Such a significant increase in exports is due to the substantial depreciation of the national currency (the rial).
It should be recalled that at the end of January, regional markets saw a trend towards higher prices – by $5–30 per ton. This was due to positive sentiment in the US and Turkish steel markets.
