China's rebar prices are expected to see moderate gains this year, mainly driven by lower production volumes and higher input costs, according to Mysteel's latest annual report on long steel items.

The national price of HRB400E 18mm dia rebar will rise by 1.2-1.5% on year and fluctuate within the range of Yuan 3,000-3,500/tonne ($431-503/t) in 2026, Mysteel predicts.

The report points out that opportunities for rebar prices lie in cost-side support and more stringent national policies relating to curbing carbon emissions. But should demand from end-user sectors such as construction prove weaker than expected, this will inevitably put pressure on prices of the bars, the report also warns.

During 2025, some steelmakers opted to upgrade their products or production lines which led to a structural optimization in the construction steel sector and a decline in long steel output, the report observed. Last year, China's rebar output dropped by 8.1% on year to total 207 million tonnes, Mysteel's data indicated. Meanwhile, the production volume of wire rod retreated by 8.4% on year to sit at 114 million tonnes in 2025.

The trend will likely extend into this year, with Mysteel forecasting domestic rebar production of about 201 million tonnes, dropping by another 2.9% on year. Meanwhile, Mysteel also estimates that wire rod output will total around 111 million tonnes in 2026, lower by 2.6% from last year's total.

As for domestic demand, China's property market remains in a deep adjustment phase and growth prospects for traditional infrastructure projects, which historically drove much of the demand for construction steel, are also seen as limited, the report highlighted.

In 2025, the total floor area of newly launched property projects nationwide plunged by 20.4% on year to 587.7 million square meters, with starts on residential properties slumping by 19.8% to 429.84 million sq m, according to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Actual rebar consumption registered around 201 million tonnes last year, declining by 11.03% on year, Mysteel's statistics showed.

Looking ahead into 2026, China's consumption of construction steel including rebar is seen recording a modest decline, the report notes.

Specifically, China's long steel sector will experience a structural shift, as carbon steel consumption will contract further, mainly due to the performance of the property sector which is seen weakening further. On the other hand, growth opportunities for construction steel demand lie in the wider use of high-performance steel (HPS) "residential buildings, public buildings and small-to-medium span bridges", as noted in China's two-year action plan for the steel industry until 2026.

China's national demand for rebar may sit at 196 million tonnes this year, down by 2.43% on year, according to Mysteel's forecast. Meanwhile, wire rod consumption would come in at 99 million tonnes in 2026, showing a 3.76% on-year slide.

Domestic steel producers may see some mild improvement in profitability from long steel sales this year, depending on the effectiveness of central government policies to rein-in steel production, the report also remarked.

Source:Mysteel Global