As of May 15, 2026, iron ore prices (KORE 62% Fe/Qingdao) had risen by 3.9% compared to May 1, reaching $114.7/t CFR. Over the past month (April 17–May 15), prices rose by 5.3%, indicating a market recovery and reaching their highest level since late May 2025.

At the end of April, the iron ore market remained influenced by Chinese steelmakers’ preparations for Labor Day. Once pre-holiday restocking was complete, activity in the spot market declined, and expectations of a slowdown in purchases weighed on prices. At the same time, the decline was short-lived: by April 29–30, prices had rebounded amid improved sentiment in the futures and physical markets, as well as stable prices for steel billets in Tangshan.

Demand from Chinese steel mills remained one of the key supporting factors. High pig iron production levels and improved margins for steelmakers stimulated raw material purchases, especially after market participants returned from the weekend. On May 6, prices rose sharply due to pent-up demand following the holidays, increased futures trading activity, and limited availability of high-quality ore at Chinese ports. The shortage of premium grades supported the spread, although the supply of medium- and low-grade raw materials remained sufficient.

At the same time, the market lacked a clear upward fundamental. The Chinese steel industry still faces the problem of excess steel supply, weaker exports, and lower actual consumption. In the first quarter, steel output and apparent consumption in China declined year-over-year, and calls from industry bodies to control production heightened the risk of administrative restrictions on ore demand.

On the supply side, pressure came from high shipments by major mining companies and an increase in ore arrivals at Chinese ports. An additional factor was the normalization of BHP’s raw material flows following the lifting of some restrictions related to negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group. This raised expectations regarding raw material availability and restrained further price growth.

Geopolitical factors had a predominantly indirect impact. Tensions in the Middle East supported steelmakers’ energy costs, while expectations regarding Sino-US negotiations influenced sentiment more than the actual market balance. By mid-May, market participants increasingly described the situation as “strong expectations, but weak reality”: infrastructure stimulus and macro-optimism supported prices, but the recovery in final steel demand remained sluggish.

In the short term, ore prices may remain relatively stable thanks to high pig iron production and support from the steel market. At the same time, the potential for further growth is limited: pig iron production in China has likely peaked, and in the summer, some blast furnaces and rolling mills may undergo seasonal maintenance. This, combined with an increase in seaborne shipments, could put further pressure on prices.