At the end of the year, the global scrap metal market is shaped by seasonal supply reductions, mixed trends in the steel sector, and cautious purchasing policies among steelmakers, resulting in uneven price dynamics across regions.
Prices for HMS 1&2 80:20 scrap in Turkey have risen by 1.9% since the beginning of December 2025 (November 28 – December 12) to $369.1/t FOB, while over the last month (November 14 – December 12) they have risen by 4%. Prices are currently at their highest level since early April this year.
The scrap market in Turkey was influenced by low supply and mixed signals from the steel market during the period. Prices were mainly supported by limited scrap availability in key supply regions, rising offer prices in the US and EU, high freight rates, and the short December working period, which forced mills to accelerate purchases for January shipments.
At the same time, fundamental support from the steel market gradually weakened. Demand for rebar remained sluggish and was based mainly on a shortage of certain diameters rather than on growth in real consumption. After a brief rise in rebar prices, mills were forced to offer discounts on their products, which cast doubt on the sustainability of further scrap price increases. Against the backdrop of rising scrap prices, Turkish producers increasingly considered imported billets from Asia as an alternative, which led to a decline in new purchases.
Prices are expected to remain relatively high until the end of the year, as some mills still need to meet their January requirements and supply remains limited. At the same time, weaker demand for steel and increased imports of billets may lead to stabilization or a moderate correction in prices in late December and early January.
Over the past month, prices in Germany (E3) rose by 2.9% – to €262.5/t ex-works, and in Italy (E3) by 1.7% – to €305/t delivered basis.
In November, the scrap market in Western and Southern Europe balanced between weak demand from metallurgists and support from exports. At the beginning of the month, suppliers tried to raise prices due to the rise in export costs, but the German market declined amid low trading activity and weak shipments abroad. At the end of November, prices in Germany rose slightly, but mills were still buying small volumes, and exports, particularly to Turkey, remained limited.
In Italy, prices remained among the highest in Europe due to a shortage of domestic supplies and competition for high-quality batches, although demand for steel and traders’ margins remained under pressure. In December, the market is mostly weak, as plant needs are limited due to Christmas shutdowns, and some sellers are holding back sales for financial reasons. At the same time, dock prices in the Benelux countries rose due to limited supply, and export quotations were supported by demand from Turkey and North Africa.
Prices are expected to remain largely stable until the end of the year, with fluctuations depending on the grade. Weak demand for steel and longer plant shutdowns remain risks for the market, while limited procurement and preparations to replenish stocks in anticipation of increased steel production in January could be supporting factors.
In the United States, the scrap market also slowed down in early December, settling at $305/t, while prices rose by 1.7% over the past month.
Overall, in November and early December, the US scrap market went through a stabilization phase after a prolonged decline, which participants refer to as the bottom of the cycle. November contracts were closed with little change in price. Metallurgists balanced between planned production shutdowns and restocking, while traders maintained price discipline. Key support for the market came from restrictions on scrap collection due to reduced working days and early winter weather conditions, especially in the Midwest.
Demand for scrap was further supported by a gradual increase in hot-rolled coil prices and mills’ desire to maintain margins, although scrap supply remained relatively adequate. In December, the market became more fragmented, depending on the grade of raw materials. Export sentiment varied between coasts. Weak demand from Asia held back the West Coast, while active purchases by Turkey supported prices on the East Coast, despite high freight rates.
The strengthening trend is expected to continue until the end of the year. Participants do not forecast significant declines, and the main expectations for a revival in demand and prices are being carried over to January, when the mills will return to full operation after the holidays.
In China, scrap prices have fallen over the past month. In particular, imported scrap fell in price by 2.9% in November (October 31 – November 28) to $329/t CFR, while domestic offers (November 14 – December 12) fell by 0.5% to $330.7/t.
In November, the Chinese scrap market was under pressure from weak profitability of steel mills and a seasonal decline in demand. Electric arc furnace mills limited purchases due to unprofitable production, rising electricity costs, and preparations for annual maintenance. Despite a slight increase in furnace utilization, scrap consumption did not show a sustained recovery, while raw material supplies to mills remained relatively high.
The import market was calm, as imported scrap, even after price adjustments in Japan, remained more expensive than domestic scrap, which dampened buyer interest. Weak prices and limited business activity are expected to continue until the end of the year amid the winter slowdown and production stoppages.
