The global market for hot-rolled coils showed mixed trends in September 2026. In the US, prices rose steadily due to limited spot supply and longer lead times. European producers are determined to raise prices, whilst in China the expected seasonal upturn remains uncertain.
According to Kallanish, as of 22 September, the new price range for hot-rolled coils in Italy and across Europe stands at €720–730/t delivered, which is approximately €20/t higher than in August. Despite weak demand, European producers are pushing for price increases against a backdrop of limited imports and uncertainty over supplies. The market is expected to pick up by November, when buyers will have used up their stocks of imported material and will have no choice but to buy from Europe at higher prices.
The HRC import market in Europe is losing momentum due to a sharp rise in the price of Asian rolled steel. Indian offers are cheaper than others, but buyers are avoiding them due to the impending quota restrictions.
At the same time, the rise in the price per roll is causing concern amongst service centres, which are unable to pass on the additional costs to their customers.
In Northern Europe, prices of €740–750/t ex works for HRC for October delivery are currently considered acceptable; in Germany, according to distributors, they stand at €730–740/t ex works.
For the Italian market, the issue of material availability is linked to uncertainty surrounding the future of the Taranto plant. In September, the Milan Court of Appeal dismissed an appeal by the operator, Acciaierie d’Italia, upholding the ruling to suspend operations at the plant’s hot section until all asbestos has been removed from the equipment and measures have been taken to reduce fine dust emissions to safe levels (the deadline for compliance is 28 October).
The Italian association ASSOFERMET, in particular, has expressed concern over this matter. The association warned that restarting operations would be difficult to achieve, both technically and economically. Taranto is Italy’s only full-cycle steelworks, supplying raw materials to the plants in Genoa and Novi Ligure. Italy’s Court of Cassation is due to hear an appeal against the closure order on 20 October, just eight days before the deadline.
The US HRC market is currently characterised by tight supply, which is pushing prices up. According to buyers, steelworks have extended delivery times for flat steel products (some mills until November). For most of the summer, these lead times were longer than usual; this trend has continued into early autumn.
The contraction in supply is the key factor, the impact of which has remained strong for some time. Most market sources expect favourable conditions for hot-rolled steel to persist at least until early 2027, although views differ on the sustainability of the current cycle.
Most plants do not sell spot volumes — trading takes place predominantly under contract. Sellers willing to sell a spot consignment demand a price premium. Seasonal production disruptions reduce some of the contracted volumes.
In the regions (the Midwest, the West Coast and the East Coast), demand is currently high and the outlook for the market is viewed optimistically. At the same time, some representatives of service centres have noted a slowdown in business in September.
According to Steel Market Update, the average price of hot-rolled coil in the United States as at 22 September is approaching $1,300 per short tonne against the backdrop of a persistent shortage in the spot market. According to Kallanish, as of 18 September, spot prices for HRC in the US stood at $1,200–1,210 per short tonne (North America ex works), or $1,328 per metric tonne.
At the end of September, the Chinese hot-rolled coil market lacks sufficient demand-side support for sustained growth. Prices are largely dependent on the trends in coking coal and coke prices. The expected seasonal upturn in buyer interest, which traditionally occurs in September–October, remains uncertain for the time being. End-users are predominantly adopting a strategy of purchasing on an as-needed basis rather than for the purpose of replenishing stocks.
Throughout September, HRC prices in the country have been volatile: producers have repeatedly attempted to raise prices, but these attempts were ultimately offset by weak demand and fluctuations in raw material costs. Attempts to regulate supply also failed to produce a lasting effect, although the initiative by CISA and 45 mills to cut production in the middle of the month initially bolstered the market.
Export prices are falling in line with domestic prices, and there are no signs that the situation is improving: external demand has remained sluggish throughout this month.
However, China’s Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel) announced in September a 200 yuan/t ($30/t) increase in HRC prices for the domestic market for October deliveries. This decision was taken against the backdrop of rising costs for coking coal and other raw materials at the start of the month, as well as expectations of a gradual improvement in demand this autumn. The company had previously implemented a similar significant price adjustment during its April sales.
As the autumn festivals in China approach, purchasing activity and restocking may pick up. However, steel prices in the country are likely to continue fluctuating within a narrow range in the near future. As of 18 September, the price of HRC in China stood at around $495/t FOT Warehouse and $515/t FOB.