The global hot-rolled coil market showed mixed trends in July 2026. In the US, prices rose steadily due to limited spot supply and stable demand, whilst in Italy, prices were supported by stricter EU import quotas. Meanwhile, in Western and Southern Europe, the market remained largely stable due to weak consumption and substantial stocks, whilst in China, a seasonal slowdown, sluggish export activity and a build-up of inventory led to a fall in prices.

Europe

Prices for hot-rolled coils in Europe remained largely stable between 19 June and 17 July; in particular, in the Western region they rose by 0.7% to €695/t ex-works, whilst import offers in the Southern region remained at €597.5/t CIF. In Italy, the situation was better – prices rose by 3 per cent to €695/t ex-works. Meanwhile, average HRC offers for July stood at €688.33/t (€688.75/t in June; -0.1% month-on-month) for Western Europe, €602.5/t (€608.1/t in June; -0.9% month-on-month) for Southern Europe, and €681.7/t (€675/t in June; +1% month-on-month) for Italy.

At the end of June, prices were held back by low activity among industrial consumers and substantial stocks at service centres. Distributors, seeking to boost sales and free up working capital, intensified price competition and offered material at prices close to those of the mills. In Italy, buyers also refrained from large transactions whilst awaiting the final details of the new import regime.

Following the announcement of stricter EU tariff quotas, market sentiment improved. A reduction in available volumes from key supplier countries, the rapid filling of certain quotas and an increase in out-of-quota duties to 50% significantly limited alternatives to European rolled steel. This enabled producers to announce price increases of €20/t in north-western Europe and up to €50/t in the south. However, weak end-user demand, summer shutdowns and sufficient stock levels have prevented the new price levels from being firmly established in contracts.

In August, the market is likely to remain sluggish, whilst in the autumn, restocking and a reduction in imports may lead to a gradual rise in prices.

USA

In the US market, HRC prices rose by 6.1% between 19 June and 17 July, reaching $1,286.9/t ex-works, whilst average offers in July stood at $1,252/t, compared with $1,212.5/t in June (+3.3%).

Prices were mainly supported by limited availability of material on the spot market and stable demand from key consumers. The automotive sector performed better than expected, activity among manufacturers of pipes for the energy sector remained high, whilst demand from the construction sector and household appliance manufacturers was largely stable. The market was further supported by maintenance shutdowns at plants and production delays at certain factories, which limited the rapid replenishment of supply.

Meanwhile, at the end of June, following five months of regular price increases, Nucor suspended further price rises at $1,130 per short tonne. This signalled a temporary stabilisation of the market during the holiday season; however, by mid-July, the company had raised its offer by a further $5 per metric tonne. Actual deals were concluded above the published benchmark due to strong order books and extended delivery times. Cheaper imports, particularly from Asia, remained a restraining factor.

Prices are likely to remain at high levels in the near future, although the seasonal slowdown and the gradual resumption of production may limit any further sharp increases.

China

In China, prices for hot-rolled coils have fallen by 1% over the past month, to $515/t FOB. The average price of the product in June was $519/t, and in July it was $515/t, indicating a loss of momentum.

In late June and early July, the market came under pressure from a seasonal decline in consumption, falling futures prices and stockpiling. Rain in the south and a heatwave in eastern China held back purchases, so consumers were buying material only to meet their immediate needs.

On the export front, large orders were few and far between, whilst steelworks and traders gradually lowered their offers below $500/t FOB, partly due to competition from cheaper material exempt from VAT.

In mid-July, domestic prices recovered slightly thanks to rising futures prices, higher ore costs and local production cuts; however, actual demand did not improve. Shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz created further uncertainty for exports.

Prices are likely to remain under pressure until the end of the summer, with a sustained recovery possible following a seasonal upturn in demand and a reduction in supply.