The copper price is unlikely to sustain its current breakout above $11,000/tonne, according to Goldman Sachs.

The metal reached an all-time high of over $11,200/t earlier this year, lifted by expectations of future market tightness amid supply disruptions, US tariffs, China’s anti-involution policy, and a boom in spending for artificial intelligence data centres. However, the US investment bank does not expect the market will enter “material” tightness until the end of the decade.

“Already-stretched speculative length means that we do not expect the current breakout above $11,000 to be sustained,” the analysts say in a note seen by Kallanish. “Most of the recent price increase has been driven by expectations of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals.”

GS has raised its forecast for the average H1 price to $10,710/t, from $10,415/t previously. It also extended its 2025 surplus estimate to 500,000 t, from 215,000 t previously, due to weak Chinese demand in Q4.

The analysts say that any stockpiling in 2026 will likely occur in the US, amid expectations of a potential refined copper tariff announcement. This would tighten the rest of the world market, providing an upside price risk.

“We think that this risk is likely to become reality as higher ex-US premia and conversations with physical traders point to traders agreeing full-year 2026 deals with producers at high premiums, securing volumes ahead of consumers,” the analysts add.

Despite the bearish outlook, miners Rio Tinto and Glencore have this week reinforced the role of copper in their strategic growth. Glencore is targeting production of 1.6 million tonnes/year by 2035.

Source:Kallanish